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Automotive, IoT chip markets leave other segments behind
origin : EE Times
Date : 2017-12-07
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There are currently two big sellers in the semiconductor market: Automotive and Internet of Things. With an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 13 percent, these two sub-markets leave the former growth leader in mobile handsets in the dust behind, the market research institute IC Insights has calculated. In their latest report "IC Market Drivers 2018" the market researchers go into detail. The two new champion markets are predicted to grow 70 percent faster than the industry average over the entire 2016-2021 period. Driven by the dynamic development of driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving as well as electric mobility in the medium term, the automotive market will have almost doubled by the end of the period under study - from $22.9 billion in 2016 to $42.9 billion in 2021. The market watchers predict almost the same growth pace but a little lower total volume for the IoT market with its broad variety of sensory, systems, and objects. This market segment is expected to reach a volume of $34.2 billion in four years - compared to just $18.4 billion last year. Between 2016 and 2021, automotive and IoT IC sales are projected to rise by compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 13.4% and 13.2%, respectively, compared to 7.9% for the entire IC market, which is projected to reach $434.5 billion in four years versus $297.7 billion last year.  Other segments with strong five-year IC sales growth rates are expected in medical electronics (a CAGR of 9.7% to $7.8 billion in 2021) and wearable systems (a CAGR of 9.0% to $4.9 billion). The shooting star of earlier years, the mobile phone market, has fallen back somewhat in terms of growth - it is expected to add "only" 7.8 % per year. However, this area is now the most powerful one in terms of size - by 2021 it will have reached a volume of $105.6 billion. Weak and even negative IC sales growth rates are expected to continue in video game consoles (a CAGR of -1.9% to $9.7 billion in 2021) and tablet computers (a CAGR of -2.3% to 10.7 billion), according to the 2018 IC Market Drivers report. Sharply higher average selling prices (ASPs) for DRAMs and NAND flash are playing a significant role in driving up dollar-sales volumes for ICs in cellphones and PCs (both desktop and notebook computers) in 2017. Cellphone IC sales are on pace to surge 24% this year to an estimated $89.7 billion, while PC integrated circuit dollar volume is expected to climb 17.6% to $69.0 billion. For both the cellphone and PC market segments, 2017 will be the strongest increase in IC sales since the 2010 recovery year from the 2009 downturn. The 2018 IC Market Drivers report’s forecast shows cellphone integrated circuit sales rising 8% to $97.3 billion next year and PC IC revenues growing 5% to $72.6 billion in 2018. The report estimates that automotive IC sales will rise 22% in 2017 to about $28.0 billion after increasing 11% in 2016. Automotive IC sales are forecast to increase 16% in 2018 to $32.4 billion. Meanwhile, IoT-related integrated circuit sales are on pace to grow 14% in 2017 to an estimated $14.5 billion after increasing about 18% in 2016. In 2018, integrated circuit sales for Internet of Things end-use applications are expected to rise 16% to about $16.8 billion, the report states.